Limited impression expected from new government’s stimulus amid political uncertainty

The impact of the model new government‘s stimulus measures on the financial system is expected to be minimal, because the stock market has already accounted for dangers associated with political points, based on the SCB Chief Investment Office (SCB CIO).
Kampon Adireksombat, first senior vice-president and head of SCB CIO, said that the formation of a model new coalition government remains to be unsure and could take longer than usual, as appointing a main minister requires no less than 376 votes combined from the House of Representatives and Senate.
He said…
“The Thai economic system is trying to recuperate throughout this political process.”
In the first quarter, the economy experienced a 2.7% year-on-year development, in comparison with 1.4% within the fourth quarter of last 12 months. Supported by a powerful recovery in private consumption and tourism, the financial system expanded by 1.9% on a seasonally adjusted quarter-on-quarter foundation, in comparison with a contraction of 1.1% in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Kampon added…
“The probability of the economy coming into a technical recession has considerably decreased,”
He continued, “While specific details relating to the new government’s economic stimulus measures remain sparse, their potential impact on the economic system is anticipated to be much less significant than these announced earlier, primarily due to the existing high public debt-to-GDP ratio that leaves restricted fiscal area out there for additional stimulus.”
Household debt is presently at a significant 87% of GDP, further restricting lending activity within the monetary sector as caution prevails.
The Thai stock market has efficiently recovered from an earnings recession, which refers to a period when listed corporations experience two consecutive quarters of revenue contraction in comparison with the corresponding interval of the earlier yr.
“The current market index is believed to have already factored in potential risks related to political points. Investors are suggested to assume about accumulating shares in sectors such as tourism, shopper items, and hospitals, which have demonstrated sturdy efficiency and proceed to exhibit signs of restoration,” Kampon stated.
He additionally noted that while the US public debt ceiling concern has the potential to cause volatility in the world financial market, it is anticipated that this matter will primarily have an effect on the US financial system in the quick time period.
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“It is anticipated a bill to extend the debt ceiling will ultimately pass Congress,”

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